I was born in Houston to immigrants from Hong Kong and Mexico. As the Nov. 3 election approaches, debate over which way Texas will lean has led voters to question if Texas is becoming a "purple" state.Having been strictly Republican (red) since 1976 in the presidential elections, Texas now has an increasing number of Democratic (blue) voters in the prediction polls. The new data for 2022 follows a similar path as 2020 and 2021s migration patterns. Competing Visions in the Nation's Largest States The governors of the nation's four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. I couldnt buy a job now if I wanted one in the line of construction, because nobody wants a Democrat on their property.. They worked, tirelessly, so my brother and I could have opportunities they never had. One element of that convergence came through what legal scholars call the rights revolution. That was the succession of actions from Congress and the Supreme Court, mostly beginning in the 1960s, that strengthened the floor of nationwide rights and reduced the ability of states to curtail those rights. But hes warning that the pressure on the countrys fundamental cohesion is likely to continue ratcheting up in the 2020s. Meanwhile, California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey rounded out the bottom of the list. It doesnt matter if Im in the inner city of Chicago. by J. Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D. & Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D. As the distance widens between the two sections, she said, there are all kinds of potential for really deep disruptions, social disruptions, that arent just about our feelings and our opinions., To Podhorzer, the growing separation means that after the period of fading distinctions, bedrock differences dating back to the countrys founding are resurfacing. Gun deaths are almost twice as high per capita in the red places as in the blue, as is the maternal mortality rate. . But so many of today's states have a partisan voting index . But the party couldnt replicate it this time around, in spite of ORourke again leading the ticket as well as lingering anger over the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection by Trump supporters and a widely criticized law enforcement response to the May 24 school shooting in Uvalde. They have moved to the left and to the right, respectively, since 1970, with. The other two are former state Sen. Paul Schimpf, R-Waterloo, and GOP newcomer Jesse Sullivan, of Petersburg. population, states, documentary, blue, red. Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news. YouGov also provided survey weights that permitted the analysis of the national sample of registered voters, a subset identified as likely voters, and the same quantities in each state. Bailey is quick to invoke a biblical passage, Proverbs 28:2, to explain himself, his candidacy and where Illinois is at right now: When there is moral rot, a nations government topples easily, but wise and knowledgeable leaders bring stability.. All Rights Reserved. Spencer drew only 18 percent of the vote. For all respondents who expressed an interest in moving, we asked a simple follow-up question: why? Well, I found out this morning, shes on a ventilator., When asked if he knows anyone who has succumbed to the illness, Spencer said, Oh yeah, I know a lot of people thats died from COVID.. Democrats have always asserted, and polls have suggested, that bigger turnout at the polls would lead to Democratic victories. Gov. Nearly one-fourth of Democratic voters (24% in California and 23% in New York) described themselves as worse off or much worse off now than they were two years ago, yet about 9 of 10 Democrats in those states will vote for Governors Newsom and Hochul. Despite the fact that people of color made up95% of the population growth in the past decade, the states halls of power remain almost exclusivelyin the hands of old, white male lawmakers. The red nation would rank third. . PROVIDENCE, R.I. Republicans are pressing their advantage deep into Democratic territory in the closing stretch of the 2022 campaign, competing for an abundance of House seats amid growing. There was a lot of posturing by some Republicans that theyd hit the trifecta in South Texas by taking all three seats, so Democrats have felt maybe a tiny bit of relief at that, Cross said. Hispanic residents now represent the largest ethnic group in Texas, surpassing non-Hispanic white residents earlier this year in a census estimate. Among Republicans, former President Trump is the most popular, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis clearly the leading alternative. Midterm dynamics suggest that 2022 is likelier to see Republicans making inroads into blue states than Democrats making inroads into red ones, but, since gubernatorial elections can sometimes . We then provided a free response box. Deep in the heart of Texas somewhere between the starry desert nights of El Paso and the blooming sage of Beaumont is the steady beat of profound contradictions. The flurry of socially conservative laws that red states have passed since 2021, on issues such as abortion; classroom discussions of race, gender, and sexual orientation; and LGBTQ rights, is widening this split. Countless More Americans Will Be Moving From Blue States To Red States In 2022 The Great Realignment By Michael Snyder. Experts Warn GOP War on Abortion Will Turn Red and Blue States Into 'Mutually Hostile Legal Territories' "The demise of Roe will exacerbate America's antagonisms, creating more furious legal rifts between states than we've seen in modern times." Kenny Stancil May 06, 2022 Its hard living here.. When Im talking to people, just about everyone acknowledges the fact life is not what it should be, and its certainly not what our founding fathers intended, he said. The NAR noted in its report that many of the areas that saw the most people relocating featured economies where the labor market had bounded back since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, which featured state and local governments across the United States shutting down or restricting business operations in an effort to quell the virus. Among likely voters: in California, 91% of Democrats are for Newsom; in New York, 89% of Democrats are for Hochul; in Texas, 95% of Republicans are for Abbott; and, in Florida, 97% of Republicans are for DeSantis. The short answer is that Republicans win a lot of small towns, just as Republicans in presidential races win a lot of rural counties, making the vast majority of the U.S. political map red, by area. It seems unlikely that the Trump-era Republicans installing the policy priorities of their preponderantly white and Christian coalition across the red states will be satisfied just setting the rules in the places now under their control. He said state patronage jobs are no longer being doled out to high-achieving Democratic political workers. Data for 2022 are likely to show "massively more divergence", predicts Mr Warshaw. Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. Since 1972, Clay County has drifted back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, voting for Walker in 1972, Democratic nominee Neil Hartigan in 1990 and Poshard in 1998. Thats all theyre concerned about is guns and abortion.. But the big story remains that blue states are benefiting more as the nation transitions into a high-productivity, 21st-century information economy, and red states (apart from their major metropolitan centers participating in that economy) are suffering as the powerhouse industries of the 20th centuryagriculture, manufacturing, and fossil-fuel extractiondecline. The 102 GOP-controlled cities and towns, in fact, is less than the 119 Stefanowski won in 2018 in a losing . Most of the states we live in appear to be solidly Republican or Democrat. Reviewed in the United States on August 17, 2022 Disc didn't work Images in this review Reviews with images. In these. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER, Chicago will continue to be important to the future of Citadel, as many of our colleagues have deep ties to Illinois, Griffin wrote in a letter to staff. Before Democratic Gov. analysis Later, in a survey by WBEZ, he was among only a handful of Illinois legislators who would not publicly state their vaccination status. "COVID isn't a red state or blue state issue. Almost all of the red states have also passed stand your ground laws backed by the National Rifle Association, which provide a legal defense for those who use weapons against a perceived threat, while none of the blue states have done so. . Reason to act now, else risklosing generations of progress made in enfranchising Black and brown communities. With these three states shifted into those categories, the two nations are almost equal in eligible voting-age population, and the blue advantage in GDP roughly doubles, with the blue section contributing 48 percent and the red just 35 percent. The special examines how COVID-19 and the Draconian policies imposed by Democratic governors resulted in lawlessness, failed education, and botched public health policies. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still dont have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, he said. Census: US population growth 2nd lowest in history, The nation's political center of gravity shifted further to the Republican-led South and West on Monday, with Texas, Florida and other Sun Belt states gaining congressional seats while chillier climes like New York and Ohio lost them. "We are at best a purple state" Nobody ever talks about that. Rev. U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican who lost the South Texas seat she had won in a special election earlier this year, blamed apathy by conservative voters as well as independents who had heavily leaned Republican in Texas polling. Take Californiaand Mississippi. Conversely, in each state, no more than 5% overall said they were financially much better off. We are rapidly becoming two very different nations with two very different cultures. Yet, as much as Spencers political fortunes as a Democrat have suffered, Bailey is highly popular with his areas voters. 850 Columbia Ave Thats the same kind of feeling that the Democrats have in Texas, that Democrats have in Utah, that you have a state that is not responsive to your needs. Of the four governors discussed in this report, DeSantis and Newsom are best positioned to run, although Newsom has disavowed any plans to do so. In 2018, Pritzker made easy work out of predecessor Bruce Rauners reelection bid, routing the one-term Republican by nearly 16 percentage points. And that leaves the country perpetually teetering on a knifes edge: The combined vote margin for either party across those purple states has been no greater than two percentage points in any of the past three presidential elections, he calculates. And downstate voters know it. If we have people who are in the cities and suburbs never interacting with people with a different demographic profile, and vice versa, you have people in red areas never seeing blue voters, it just further pushes the two sides away from each other, he said, and gives them less and less common ground.. ), Our survey asked respondents across the nation to register their early preferences for the 2024 presidential race. We are more like a federated republic of two nations: Blue Nation and Red Nation. Iowa, Ohio, and ME-2 are trending red and have gone pretty deep in that direction, Texas is trending blue but the Democrats still aren't getting as much of the vote there as in NC. My work as a community organizer in Texas, a soldierand a graduate student at Harvard are just as much their achievements as they are mine. No Democratic-controlled state has passed any of those measures. . I definitely feel for the people in the red areas of Illinois because you know if the Chicago area has enough people to determine the course of the state, [red areas] are basically never going to win, Jacobson said. Specifically, Republicans are more likely to want to leave California and New York and more Democrats are more likely to want to leave Texas and Florida. Among Democrats, Newsom (7%) lags behind Vice President (and fellow Californian) Kamala Harris (14%) in the large field that includes Biden, and it is far from clear he would be willing to challenge either Harris or Biden. Still, the failure of the Democrats to break a 28-year losing streak for statewide office shows the party has a long way to go. In 2018, with Beto ORourke, Democratic performance improved by13.9 percentage points from the previous midterm. The association had pumped $15 million into Florida in the previous two election cycles. Spencer is the Democratic County chairman in Clay County, about 240 miles south of Chicago. The hardening difference between red and blue, Podhorzer maintains, empowers the 10 purple states (if you include Arizona and Georgia) to decide which of the two superpower nations values, Blue or Red, will prevail in presidential and congressional elections. During the 1980s, the colors were reversed, and red states were democratic while blue states were republican. OREGON POLL: @ChristineDrazan 36%@TinaKotek 34%@senbetsyjohnson 19%9% undecidedhttps://t.co/Q4dZtymPg7 pic.twitter.com/NB2cIsLUfm, Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 4, 2022. Before 2020, Arizona had voted Democratic only once in a presidential election since 1948 and Democrats had not occupied both U.S. Senate seats since 1952. Meanwhile, many Republicans described concerns about politics and policy, while very few Democrats did. People do, and that accounts for why Democrats keep winning governors races in Illinois during the past quarter century despite not having a message that resonates throughout all 102 counties. This virus has impacted all Americans." MORE: Trump's rebuke of CDC . The governors of the nations four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. And quickly. Mostly, Republicans do well in rural areas, Democrats do well in the cities, and the suburbs are mixed but are more Republican. Voters returned GOP incumbents to their jobs at the top of the ticket and handed the states dominant party its 14th consecutive sweep of statewide offices. Using new survey data, this report highlights four main findings. After their expected reelections, at least two of these governorsDeSantis and Newsomare positioned to carry their states policy visions into a national competition for the presidency. Claremont McKenna College Throughout this report, we discuss voters as Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. We have relied on standard questions about party identification to describe these voters and have combined some categories together. A 13-year-old girl named Meilin turns into a giant red panda whenever she gets too excited. Tonight Texans sent a message that they want to keep the Lone Star State the beacon of opportunity that we provided over the past eight years, Abbott wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening. Period.. If Newsom or DeSantis make bids, it is clear they would use their respective states as models for what the nation as a whole should become. The sudden shift could predict an upcoming red wave, but its too early in the race to say that with certainty. Bailey, whose home county was represented by a Democrat less than 20 years ago, regards himself as a direct byproduct of downstates hardening red hue, a trend he attributes to a decline in moral integrity and fiscal integrity by those in power, particularly Democrats. It goes hand in hand with the kinds of political polarization and partisanship that were seeing, said journalist Lou Jacobson, senior correspondent for PolitiFact, the nonpartisan fact-checking organization. Voters seem to be fine with the status quo, said Drew Landry, assistant professor of government at South Plains College in Levelland, west of Lubbock. A purple state is one in which voters' support for the Democratic Party, represented by the color blue, and the Republican Party, represented by the color red, is about equal. Same Since 2000: After 2020 Election . Now, if Glenn was to run for dog catcher against a cat, the cat would get 90% of the vote, said Spencer, who called Poshard a friend. Among Democrats, California appears to be a bit more attractive than New York, and there is some interest in the red states as well. Just32%of Texans want to make abortion laws stricter, yet Republicans bannedup to 90%of abortions,primarily affectingwomen of color. Like other analysts who study democracy, he views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Partywhat he terms the MAGA movementas the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. If you put together the city and the suburbs, thats a winning combination for any candidate. Im looking at some numbers across the country and some places have record midterm turnout, and we just didnt do it in Texas. That progress, though, stopped after 1980, and the gap remained roughly unchanged for the next three decades. In a private newsletter that he writes for a small group of activists, Podhorzer recently laid out a detailed case for thinking of the two blocs as fundamentally different nations uneasily sharing the same geographic space. To put the states seismic political weight into perspective, based on thecurrent electoral map, Democrats could loseArizona,Florida,Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvaniaand Wisconsin and still take the White House if they won Texas. But then again, that is how a democracy works, he said, and Im not sure what there is to be done about it.. P odhorzer defines modern red and blue America as the states in which each party has usually held unified control of the governorship and state legislature in recent years. Florida Is Turning Red. Podhorzer, like Mason and Grumbach, believes that the MAGA movements long-term goal is to tilt the electoral rules in enough states to make winning Congress or the White House almost impossible for Democrats. At this early stage, all such choices are speculative. Through gerrymandering, theyreducedthe number of majority-Black and Latino congressional districts andsplit upAsian communities significantly diluting political power for the Texans of color who have driven population growth. Florida added one seat, and Texas added two. Republicans and Democrats are battling for control over Congress, while many states are busy holding gubernatorial elections to appoint a new state leader. Some of the more notable states on the list are California, New York, Illinois, and Washington, DC. Americas future is Texas. Director of Polling, Rose Institute of State and Local Government "It would be smart for people heading into the 2022 campaign to level with their . Democrats are defined similarly. . Governors in both red and blue states have watched their approval ratings sink throughout the pandemic. Our house was steeped in the melodic hum of Spanish, Cantoneseand English, hushed only by the sound of the front door slamming as my parents shuffled out for work. This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. Beyond determining who will occupy governors' offices, these contests will shape our nation's direction in the coming years. Follow him on Twitter:@chrischudeleon. Yet, concerns about personal finances do not appear to be driving voting decisions in the gubernatorial races in these states. Over the past year, however, many of our Chicago teams have asked to relocate to Miami, New York, and our other offices around the world.. Assistant Professor of Government Nevertheless, unrest can express itself in other waysincluding thoughts of moving out of state. Rather than just protecting slavery within their borders, the Southern states sought to control federal policy to impose their vision across more of the nation, including, potentially, to the point of overriding the prohibitions against slavery in the free states. Grumbach reached a similar conclusion in a recent paper analyzing trends in small-d democracy across the states. And it is determined to impose its policy and social vision on the entire countrywith or without majority support. (Key moments in that revolution included the passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts and the Supreme Court decisions striking down state bans on contraception, interracial marriage, abortion, and, much later, prohibitions against same-sex intimate relations and marriage.). Millions of Americans are fleeing blue states for freer, more prosperous red states. The pattern of Democrats contracting into more densely populated areas while surrendering big swathes of political turf is already shaping the contours of the still-early 2022 gubernatorial campaign. Maps: What's the Real Red and Blue Balance of State Government? Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. That's one of the revealing facts in the Census Bureau's annual assessment of U.S. migration released last week. The more ground the Democrat Party gains in the suburban areas, the more theyre able to cut loose people from the rural areas, said former Democratic U.S. Rep. Glenn Poshard, the partys 1998 nominee for governor. This election season, Texans around the state will turn to The Texas Tribune for the information they need on voting, election results, analysis of key races and more. Currently, it looks to be a race between the governor from Chicago and one of possibly four or more GOP contenders, three of whom hail from deep-red downstate. No state in the blue section has a law on the books banning abortion before fetal viability, while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights if the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority, as expected, overturns Roe v. Wade. A lot of people downstate feel thats whats happened.. *Note: This report was updated on November 8, 2022 to correct an insignificant typographical error. No gubernatorial candidate since at least the Roaring 20s posted a winning margin that large in Cook County. CINCINNATI President-elect Joe Biden is the first person to win the presidency without carrying Ohio since 1960. Then, with support from the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans could impose red-state values and programs nationwide, even if most Americans oppose them. Pritzker did so while losing 86 out of Illinois 102 counties, but that showing amounted to an improvement for Democrats over previous elections. Tuesday night, that Democratic progress seemed to halt. They cant make me take that vaccine, he said, quoting her. By that. Bailey was once escorted out of the Illinois House because he refused for a day to adhere to the chambers mandate that members and staff wear masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The structural attacks on our institutions that paved the way for Trumps candidacy will continue to progress, Podhorzer argues, with or without him at the helm.. Indiana shares this trend with. More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving . Measured that way, the red nation houses slightly more of the countrys eligible voting population (45 percent versus 39 percent), but the blue nation contributes more of the total U.S. gross national product: 46 percent versus 40 percent. Because of this reality, these states can switch from supporting one party to the other, from election to election. The impact of these investments (as well as massive defense spending across both periods) on states that had historically spent little on public services and economic development helped steadily narrow the gap in per capita income between the states of the old Confederacy and the rest of the country from the 1930s until about 1980. Holding incumbents accountable is complicated, though, in a system where policy authority is divided across multiple layers and branches of government, and partisanship seems to be more important than actually evaluating a governors performance. The reputation was red. In California, a remarkable 70% of Republicans said they are interested in leaving the state, compared to 27% of Democrats. At least 90% of voters from the opposing party in each state are sticking with their partys candidate. The Texas I know is young, withnearly halfof the state being younger than 35. In the blue state of Oregon's 5th Congressional District, where it's been over a quarter-century since a Republican last won election, GOP nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer is locked in a very. Dave McKinney covers Illinois politics and government for WBEZ. Texas led the nation in restricting abortion rights even before the U.S. Supreme Court removed the constitutional right to it last summer by overturning Roe v. Wade. Republicans and Independents stayed home. Lower taxes, Republican legislatures, and stronger While Texas Democrats still face daunting historical odds having not carried the state in a presidential electionsince 1976 or won statewide since 1994 parallels can be drawn to Arizona, another border state where Republicans hold has eroded. In each of the four states, our survey explored voter perceptions about how life was going with respect to your personal financial situation and the quality of life in your community. We asked: For each area, are things better or worse than they were two years ago?. Since about 2008, Podhorzer calculates, the southern states at the heart of the red nation have again fallen further behind the blue nation in per capita income. And it was another rebuke of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto ORourke, who lost his third election in four years. Florida just does whatever it wants though and is impossible to predict, especially this far out. . Texas Republicans maintained their nearly three-decade grip on state government on Tuesday, comfortably fending off a vigorous run to unseat Gov. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden laid claim to just 14 Illinois counties. ), From the July/August 2021 issue: How America fractured into four parts. The states shifting demographics had given Democrats hope, as margins at the top of the ticket have shrunk in recent years. But although Arizona is blue for now, Volgy isn't committed to that. Last year, the American Enterprise Institute released a It is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement that has built a solidifying base of institutional support through conservative media networks, evangelical churches, wealthy Republican donors, GOP elected officials, paramilitary white-nationalist groups, and a mass public following. As Jacobson, the journalist, found in his reporting for the University of Virginias Center for Politics, the trend is similar in presidential elections here. The trend of population shifts from Democratically dominated "blue" states to Republican-controlled "red" states only accelerated in the COVID-era of the past 2 years, according to census data and other information from companies like U-Haul. Similarly, 56% of Republicans in Texas and 48% of Republicans in Florida report that they are worse off or much worse off now than two years ago, yet nearly all Republicans in those states will line up to reelect Governors Abbott and DeSantis. The drop-off was even more pronounced if Barack Obamas 2008 presidential win is a marker. All the evidence, anecdotal and empirical, is there to show that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic wins by Mark Kelly . Nationally and in Illinois, thats concerning, Jacobson said. As the nation has sorted itself into red and blue territory, places where Democrats once were competitive in state races have become more solidly Republican. One-party hegemony in these states also allows their governors to build robust policy records they can wield when stepping onto the national stage. In the meantime, a new generation of potential presidential contenders is taking shape. 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